Field Notes #5: The Assumptions are moving
What a summer. And quite literally, what a hot one. I hope, somewhere in amongst it all there has been some proper time to slow down. To step away from the noise, spend time with people you love and allow your brain to wander a little.
There is something I have always loved about the end of August. That delicious back-to-school feeling of September approaching, when the notebooks are still empty, the diary feels full of possibility and, for a brief moment, it feels as though almost anything could happen.
I think we need that reset this year.
Because while many of us have been trying to slow down, the food system certainly hasn't. Over the summer, I kept noticing stories that, on their own, could easily be filed away as interesting developments. Put them alongside one another, though, and something more significant starts to emerge.
The assumptions are moving.
Take the weather - after last year's heat contributed to a profit warning at Greggs, this summer the business has been talking about adapting its range, including greater emphasis on cold drinks and products better suited to hotter conditions. On one level, that is simply smart product development, but zoom out and the question becomes much more interesting.
How much of today's food portfolio has been designed around assumptions about climate, seasonality and consumer behaviour that may no longer hold?
And which of today's hero products have been designed for a climate that no longer exists?
That is not really a sustainability question. It is a portfolio question. A commercial question. Potentially even a stranded-product question.
And it is one of several assumptions I've been thinking about over the summer. Because the same pattern starts to appear when you look at changing appetite, supply-chain dependency, AI and the way we think about resilience.
This month's Field Notes joins some of those signals together and asks a bigger question:
What happens when the assumptions your business was built around begin to move?
This is an extract from this month's Field Notes, The assumptions are moving. Field Notes is shared in full with the Future Food Movement community. If you'd like access to the full edition and the wider conversations behind the thinking, explore membership or get in touch with the team to find the right way into the network.
Signals referenced
• Hot weather, food demand and portfolio adaptation, including Greggs' recent trading experience and cold-drink expansion.
• Ed Conway's analysis of the global journey behind the '30,000-mile fish finger'.
• M&S deployment of AI-powered tools on dairy farms to support animal welfare monitoring.
• Contrasting debate about AI, automation and intensification in animal agriculture.
• The growing strategic implications of GLP-1 medicines for appetite, nutrition, portions and category economics.
Explore previous Field Notes
Every month I connect the dots across leadership conversations, emerging signals and developments shaping the future of food.
Field Notes from the System #4 - July 2026
Field Notes from the System #3 – June 2026
Field Notes from the System #2 – May 2026
Field Notes from the System #1 – April 2026